دور مزادات العملات الأجنبية في اليمن في التأثير على تقلبات سعر الصرف مع الإشارة إلى أثر ذلك على معدلات التضخم

Abstract

In recent years, rising inflation in Yemen has led to the collapse of the national currency's purchasing power, a decline in GDP's cumulative value, and worsening poverty and unemployment rates. To address the volatility of exchange prices and inflation, successive Yemeni governments have implemented monetary policy tools, notably direct intervention in the exchange market by selling foreign currencies. In November 2021, the Central Bank of Yemen refined this policy by introducing auctions conducted through the Refentive platform. This study aims to assess the role of foreign currency auctions in Yemen in influencing the inflation rate. To achieve the study's objectives, descriptive analysis and interviews with experts and officials were employed. The results revealed that there is a statistically significant relationship between foreign exchange auctions and both the impact on exchange rate volatility, liquidity absorption, and thus the impact on inflation rates. The study found that these auctions serve as an alternative to inflationary measures like money printing. The study also identified key challenges facing the auctions and suggested important developments to enhance their performance. Finally, it recommended that policymakers ensure the persistence and regularity of the auctions, strengthen them with sustainable financial resources, and use auction revenues in accordance with monetary policies rather than to cover the public budget deficit.