فاعلية سياسات التنويع الاقتصادي في اليمن تحليل التحديات وآفاق التحول الهيكلي (2024-2010)

Abstract

This study examines the state of economic diversification in Yemen during the period 2010–2024 amid heavy reliance on oil and gas as the main sources of public revenues and foreign exchange. Such dependence has increased the economy’s vulnerability to energy price fluctuations, external shocks, and internal crises resulting from conflict and political and economic instability, thereby constraining growth and sustainable development. The study employs the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) to measure the degree of sectoral concentration in Yemen’s gross domestic product and to assess diversification levels through an analysis of government revenue and export data. The findings reveal a high level of economic concentration, with oil revenues dominating economic activity, while non-oil sectors such as agriculture, industry, and tourism contribute only marginally. Diversification indicators have declined markedly since the outbreak of the conflict in 2015, exacerbating structural fragility and increasing reliance on unstable, non-renewable resources. The study concludes that achieving sustainable growth in Yemen requires a comprehensive economic strategy focused on promoting investment in non-oil sectors, improving the business environment, and developing infrastructure to reduce oil dependence and enhance economic resilience.