Quantifying the Education Gap and Student Dropout Rate in Yemen: A Decade-Long Analysis of Secondary School Performance and University Admission Outcome

الملخص

The prolonged crises in Yemen over the past decade have severely affected students’ education quality, raising concerns regarding the sharp decline of primary and secondary education quality and its potential long-term consequences. This study explored the education gap and students’ dropout rate at the pre-university stage, while also addressing the multifaceted challenges students face during transition into higher education, the underlying causes, and ways to control them. This research adopted a quantitative approach by analyzing data from approximately 13,000 high school graduates across various Yemeni governorates over the past decade. The study traced students’ educational trajectories by comparing secondary schools' final grades with university admission exam outcomes and again with the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research (MHESR) admission exam results, which have been conducted since 2022 to evaluate their eligibility for international scholarships. This multi-analysis represents a systematic quantification of the education gap at both the governorate and national levels. A unique finding reveals a substantial education gap of approximately 27% on average between secondary education outcomes and the actual scientific level of pre-university students across Yemeni governorates. This education gap narrows in large urban governorates and widens in rural and countryside areas. The analysis precisely quantifies, for the first time, a 46% dropout rate among secondary school graduates, indicating that nearly half of the Yemeni youth enter the workforce without proper qualifications. Through a data-driven, analytically grounded assessment, this study contributes valuable insights that can assist education policymakers in designing more effective strategies to improve the quality of primary and secondary education in Yemen and foster a more stable and sustainable educational environment for Yemeni students.